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Globally stock markets have turned around smartly from the August 5th sell off triggered by US recession fears and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. Latest data on US inflation and unemployment relief do not indicate an economy tipping into recession. On the other hand, the 2.9% annual inflation number and slightly softening labour markets set the stage for a Fed rate cut in September, which the market is pencilling in now. The sharp dip in CBOE VIX to around 15% indicates that the fears were overdone and stability is the near-term trend.In India we have the paradox of exuberant retail investors and cautious institutional investors. The former is not much concerned about the elevated valuations of the market while the latter are increasing their cash component on valuation concerns. Investors should give priority to valuations in their fresh investment. The broader market doesn’t have valuation comfort.
Globally stock markets have turned around smartly from the August 5th sell off triggered by US recession fears and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. Latest data on US inflation and unemployment relief do not indicate an economy tipping into recession. On the other hand, the 2.9% annual inflation number and slightly softening labour markets set the stage for a Fed rate cut in September, which the market is pencilling in now. The sharp dip in CBOE VIX to around 15% indicates that the fears were overdone and stability is the near-term trend.In India we have the paradox of exuberant retail investors and cautious institutional investors. The former is not much concerned about the elevated valuations of the market while the latter are increasing their cash component on valuation concerns. Investors should give priority to valuations in their fresh investment. The broader market doesn’t have valuation comfort.
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Nifty remained sideways ahead of the US CPI inflation data release and the public holiday on Thursday. The overall trend is likely to remain weak, as the index continues to trade below the initial resistance level of 24,250. Additionally, the index has been sustaining below the middle Bollinger Band, confirming a weak near-term trend. This weakness might push the index towards 23,900/23,700. On the higher end, resistance is expected at 24,250/24,500
Nifty remained sideways ahead of the US CPI inflation data release and the public holiday on Thursday. The overall trend is likely to remain weak, as the index continues to trade below the initial resistance level of 24,250. Additionally, the index has been sustaining below the middle Bollinger Band, confirming a weak near-term trend. This weakness might push the index towards 23,900/23,700. On the higher end, resistance is expected at 24,250/24,500
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The domestic market traded within a narrow range; even as global markets saw a positive turnaround. Investors adopted a cautious stance due to weak domestic sentiment and the risks of earnings downgrades. Meanwhile, a decline in WPI inflation, driven by lower food prices, signals that the RBI is progressing towards its price stability target. The IT index edged up, reflecting optimism for improved US CPI data expected later today, which could increase the scope of a loose monetary policy from the Fed
The domestic market traded within a narrow range; even as global markets saw a positive turnaround. Investors adopted a cautious stance due to weak domestic sentiment and the risks of earnings downgrades. Meanwhile, a decline in WPI inflation, driven by lower food prices, signals that the RBI is progressing towards its price stability target. The IT index edged up, reflecting optimism for improved US CPI data expected later today, which could increase the scope of a loose monetary policy from the Fed
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