RBI is expected to cut rates by 25 bps with a shift to an accommodative stance, indicating more rate cuts may follow amid rising growth risks.
US tariff hikes could reduce India’s FY26 GDP by 30–60 bps due to indirect effects on business confidence and capex, though direct trade exposure remains low.
Inflation is expected to stay below 4% in the near term, creating space for monetary easing without stoking price pressures.
Nominal GDP growth may hover around 10–10.5%; earnings downgrades are possible if trade tensions persist and weigh further on business sentiment.
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