We would think that next move is unlikely to be a rate cut, at this juncture, RBI will only keep its options open towards accommodation. The hawkish points emanate from the points around a) Inflation is on a declining path although there is some distance to cover with upside risks from geo-politics and weather while the agricultural outlook is buoyant and positive for food prices. b) RBI keeps its guard on noting that “we have to be very careful of opening the gate and need to keep the horse to a tight leash” and mentioning that RBI cannot be complacent with the rapidly evolving global conditions. The change in stance rather gives greater flexibility and optionality to act in sync with the evolving outlook.

 


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