VIX’s behaviour now has a lot of similarity to the period shortly before the 2019 electoral results announcement. Then too, markets had come off peaks in March, and VIX shot up to 28.6. The main difference is that prior to this, VIX was in a 20-14 range during the previous 6 months, pointing to volatility expectations being reasonably high for an extended period. In stark contrast, VIX’s rise from record lows to above 20 now, has unfolded in just a fortnight’s time. So, while recent history points to more room for upside in VIX and thereby volatility, the abruptness in the rate of change of VIX, may lead to a cool off, perhaps even before the electoral results.
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