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Even though a low VIX is usually accompanied by stability or a rising index, it is usually a worrying sign, as it suggests that traders are less prepared for unforeseen events. In fact through June 2023 until late December, 13 kept a lid on VIX, with sizable falls on the index failing to attract any panic, but instead finding buying interest to catapult prices to the new peaks that we are at now. We see the rise in VIX since late December as a positive as it prepares the traders for future shocks. Also, VIX is still not at a level that signals panic yet, but just high enough to sensitise the traders and improve the volatility expectations. That the recent fall did not call for a VIX beyond 17, the level seen during Jan-Mar when panic was the highest last year is suggestive that VIX could still ease off or even blow hot and cold for a while. This is in fact more dangerous to weekly traders than stock traders, as we may alternate between cheap straddles to expensive ones, week on week.
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